alt Hacker NewsNumber of 5-state TMs is 21^10 = 16,679,880,978,201; coming from (1 + writemovestate)^2*state; difference with your formula is that in our model, halting is encoded using undefined transition.
"essentially different" is not a statically-checked property. It is discovered by the enumeration algorithm (Tree Normal Form, see Section 3 of https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.12337); in particular, for each machine, the algorithm needs to know it if will ever reach an undefined transition because if it does it will visit the children of that machine (i.e. all ways to set that reached undefined transition).
Knowing if an undefined transition will be ever reached is not computable, hence knowing the number of enumerated machines is not computable in general and is as hard as solving BB(5).
I guess the meaning of "essentially different" essentially depends on the strength of the mathematical theory that you used to classify them!
When I first heard it I thought about using some kind of similar symmetry arguments (e.g. swapping left-move and right-move). Maybe there are also more elaborate symmetry arguments of some kind.
Isn't it fair to say that there is no single objective definition of what differences between machines are "essential" here? If you have a stronger theory and stronger tools, you can draw more distinctions between TMs; with a weaker theory and weaker tools, you can draw fewer distinctions.
By analogy, suppose you were looking at groups. As you get a more sophisticated group theory you can understand more reasons or ways that two groups are "the same". I guess there is a natural limit of group isomorphism, but perhaps there are still other things where group structure or behavior is "the same" in some interesting or important ways even between non-isomorphic groups?