> What if it takes 12 months of hard thinking to draw the right conclusion from the information? Are there many investors who go to such lengths? Are they all thinking at the same speed? And if not, what does that tell us about the EMH?
To paraphrase William Gibson: the information may be available, but it is not evenly distributed.
It's why (e.g.) hedge funds use satellites to get information on company activities:
* https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/how-hedge-funds-use-satel...
* https://internationalbanker.com/brokerage/how-satellite-imag...
It's takes resources (time, money, etc) to gain an advantage, and it's only do it because they think some extra bits of information will allow them to know more than The Market in general / their counterparties to get a better conditions on a trade or options.
Why do you think insider trading became illegal: some folks have that information before others simply because of their job/position. There was a case of someone knowing something early, because information can only travel as fast of the speed of light, which some "beat":
> Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced it would not be tapering its bond buying program at 2 p.m. ET. The news takes seven milliseconds — about the speed of light — to reach Chicago. But before the seven milliseconds was up, a few huge orders based on the Fed's decision were placed on Chicago exchanges.
* https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2013/09/24/22...
* https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/11/final-frontie...
EMH is saying people that if people think they can make money, they will spend the resources to get an information edge to accurate price what a commodity is 'worth', either higher or lower. If you better know what it 'should' be, then you can devise a trading strategy (buy/sell/short/long) to get one over your counterparty.