> That would mean that the p/e-ratio of a company would rise sharply long before the profits set in. And that rise would be called "mysterious" by the general public. And then only when the profits set in, the p/e would come down.

You have to look at the volumes involved: if there are tens of millions of shares of a particular stock moved everyday, a single event that involves 100,000 shares is going to be lost in the noise.

There are always people who think they know better (if they didn't think so they wouldn't be trading), and they may make crazy-appearing trades. Lots of the people in The Big Short were viewed as 'lunatics' ("You're betting against the housing market?") that turned out to be right. But also remember that there are people who think the world is flat.

> The price roughly rose along the earnings. Even though the foundations for generative AI became clear in 2015.

It's also why you hear the talking heads on television say things like "…this has already been priced in.".