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water9yesterday at 8:39 PM0 repliesview on HN

It makes no sense because people do not acquire information at the exact same time, nor do they act on it with the same amount of force, i.e., capital.

It’s the same stupid people who say the market is a random walk. Oh yeah, if it was a random walk, then why do earnings reports even matter? Companies could just lose and gain whatever they want, and stocks would just fluctuate randomly.

Here’s the truth. It’s called Rice’s theory of opportunity. It says that there is a golden window on the order of a few weeks to a few months where the signal-to-noise ratio has the least attenuation. This is because it avoids the initial transitory periods, the real-time gap between the knowledge existing and the knowledge spreading to people with enough resources to make a difference.