alt Hacker NewsI've listed to basically every argument Elizer has verbalized, across many podcast interviews and youtube videos. I also made it maybe an hour into the audiobook of Everyone Dies.
Roughly speaking, every single conversation with Elizer you can find takes the form: Elizer: "We're all going to die, tell me why I'm wrong." Interviewer: "What about this?" Elizer: "Wrong. This is why I'm still right." (two hours later) Interviewer: "Well, I'm out of ideas, I guess you're right and we're all dead."
My hope going into the book was that I'd get to hear a first-principals argument for why these things silicon valley is inventing right now are even capable of killing us. I had to turn the book off, because if you can believe it despite it being a conversation with itself, it still follows this pattern of presuming LLMs will kill us, then arguing from the negative.
Additionally, while I'm happy to be corrected about this: I believe that Elizer's position is characterizable as: LLMs might be capable of killing everyone, even independent of a bad-actor "houses don't kill people, people kill people" situation. In plain terms: LLMs are a tool, all tools empower humans, humans can be evil, so humans might use LLMs to kill each other; but we can remove these scenarios from our Death Matrix because these are known and accepted scenarios. Even with these scenarios removed, there are still scenarios left in the Death Matrix where LLMs are the core responsible party to humanity's complete destruction. "Terminator Scenarios" alongside "Autonomous Paperclip Maximizer Scenarios" among others that we cannot even imagine (don't mention paperclip maximizers to Elizer though, because then he'll speak for 15 minutes on why he regrets that analogy)
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FWIW, Eliezer has been making these arguments decades before the appearance of LLMs. It isn’t clear to me that LLMs are evidence either for or against Eliezer’s arguments.
If you want a first principles approach, I recommend Rob Miles' videos on YouTube. He has been featured many times in the Computerphile channel, and has a channel of his own as well.
Most of the videos take a form of:
1. Presenting a possible problem that AIs might have (say, lying during training, or trying to stop you from changing their code) 2. Explaining why it's logical to expect those problems to arise naturally, without a malicious actor explicitly trying to get the AI to act badly 3. Going through the proposed safety measures we've come up so far that could mitigate that problem 4. Showing the problems with each of those measures, and why they are wholly or at least partially ineffective
I find he's very good a presenting this in an approachable and intuitive way. He seldom makes direct those bombastic "everyone will die" claims, and instead focuses on just showing how hard it is to make an AI actually aligned with what you want it to do, and how hard it can be to fix that once it is sufficiently intelligent and out in the world.
I don't know if this matters to you, but Eliezer doesn't think LLMs will kill us. He thinks LLMs are a stepping stone to the ASI that will kill us.
If you’re actually curious, not just venting, the book you want is Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom.
Not to claim that it is in any way correct! I’m a huge critic of Bostrom and Yud. But that’s the book with the argument that you are looking for.
Why would you think Eliezer's argument, which he's been articulating since the late 2000s or even earlier, is specifically about Large Language Models?
It's about Artificial General Intelligences, which don't exist yet. The reason LLMs are relevant is because if you tried to raise money to build an AGI in 2010, only eccentrics would fund you and you'd be lucky to get $10M, whereas now LLMs have investors handing out $100B or more. That money is bending a generation of talented people into exploring the space of AI designs, many with an explicit goal of finding an architecture that leads to AGI. It may be based on transformers like LLMs, it may not, but either way, Eliezer wants to remind these people that if anyone builds it, everyone dies.