> I think you're forgetting to control for the fact that the former would be severely punished for doing so, and the latter would be severely punished for not doing so?

That’s interesting and I think it’s more complicated. Here are some half-finished thoughts:

I imagine a grunt soldier would indeed be more likely to follow an order to nuke the world than a general would be to issue the order/push the button- and part of this is because the punishment for the grunt would be much greater, where the general is afforded more latitude in decision making.

However, the grunt may have volunteered to submit to the potential punishments, having signed a contract with the army. He made a choice in that regard.

If you want to be able to make your own decisions (e.g. choose NOT to drop the bomb when ordered) you have to have power to defend against “punishment” or unwanted consequences imposed by others. For a grunt, this might look like physical ability to defend themselves (2nd amendment comes to mind) , or economic independence via a homestead, or something else.

Interesting to think about.