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datadrivenangel11/04/20252 repliesview on HN

The whole point of shale is that you can get it going again quickly and piecemeal based on the price of oil. It puts a large plateau/floor on oil at $~60 per barrel which is geopolitically very useful.


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fraserphysics11/05/2025

Yes! There's more oil in the ground than we should ever burn. The places where it's cheap to get out are ruled by unpleasant people. Shale limits the price they can charge. Yea shale. However, low prices encourage putting CO2 in the air. Boo shale. I wish we would find a better way to reduce use than paying unpleasant people high prices.

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alephnerd11/04/2025

Depends, breaking below $60 per barrel does lead to significant layoffs and it's difficult to rebuild that know-how because knowledge isn't 100% elastic.

The oil glut itself is largely because of the KSA and Russia in the midst of a mutual price war as well as the US expanding it's own production.

That said, it's still an open question of whether a glut will exist or not - at this point it's China, India, and Japan that's become the primary driver for oil prices because they are getting similar deals from both KSA and Russia, and are trying to pressure other suppliers to give similar deals.

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