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chubot11/04/20251 replyview on HN

Yeah totally, not a single mention of Kurzweil in this article. I also read “Age of spiritual machines” in 1999 (in college), and skimmed most of his subsequent books

Then Kurzweil became my manager’s peer at Google in 2014 or so (actually 2 managers). I remember he was mocked by a few coworkers (and maybe deservedly so, because they had some mildly funny stories)

So I have been wondering with all the AGI talk why Kurzweil isn’t talked about more. Was he vindicated in some sense?

I did get a partial answer - one reason is that doomer AGI prophecies are better marketing than Kurzweil’s brand of AGI, which is about merging with machines

And of course both kinds of AGI prophecies are good distractions from AI ethics, which is more likely to slow investment than to grow it


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labrador11/04/2025

> Was he vindicated in some sense?

No. He's still saying AGI will demand political rights in 2029. Like Geoffrey Hinton, Kurzweil gets a pass because he's brilliant and acomplished. But also like Hinton, he's wrong about this one issue. With Hinton it appears to be fear driving his fantasies. With Kurzwel it's probably over-confidence.

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