alt Hacker NewsWithout weighing in on the accuracy of this claim, this would be an expected part of the maturity cycle.
Compare to databases. You could probably have plotted a chart of database adoption rates in the '90s as small companies started running e.g. Lotus Notes, FoxPro and SQL server everywhere to build in-house CRMs and back-office apps. Those companies still operate those functions, but now most small businesses do not run databases themselves. Why manage SQL Server when you can just pay for Salesforce and Notion with predictable monthly spend?
(All of this is more complex, but analogous at larger companies.)
My take is the big rise in AI adoption, if it arrives, will similarly be embedded inside application functions.
People push back against comments like these. But, as you suggest, the win isn't about individual developers potentially increasing their productivity by some inflated amount. It's about baking more prediction and automation into more tools that people who aren't developers use. Which is probably part of where the general meme of lack of interest in entry level programmers come from.