The IPCC has historically also underestimated the effect of climate change on the sea.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044...

It's presumably worth it for Iceland to take seriously even if the probability is low.

When was it updated? The newer research seems up the probability.

Eg https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/28/collapse...

AFAIK the IPCC are generally quite conservative on these matters. Newer research shows possible collapse occurring much sooner (Sometime between 2025-2095).

I was curious about whether or not the IPCC associates numerical values to words like "unlikely" so I looked it up:

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2017/08/AR5_Uncertai...

They seem to be giving the word unlikely a range from 0-33%. I'm not sure how to reason about that 0% given that they also used the phrase "not impossible."

[flagged]