This is what makes the innovator's dilemma repeat itself so many times in so many industries. It's not that the incumbent companies don't see the new technology; it's that they're so entrenched in what they know how to do that pivoting to the new technology is basically a Hail Mary no matter how you do it. Do it too early and your shareholders are going to think you're crazy. Do it too late, and you're risking entering a new market as the chaser with a bad hand of company, employees, and board that don't have any idea of what they're doing.

Although Ford's CEO now gets it, Ford's product line doesn't reflect it yet. Farley has been bringing a few sample BYD cars to the US, for Ford people to drive around and to take apart. Farley dragged his executive team to China to see a BYD plant. They came back scared. But what Ford actually sells is 1) an F-150 converted to electric, 2) a Ford Mustang converted to electric, and 3) a Ford Transit converted to electric. They're all more expensive, and heavier, than their gasoline-powered versions.

BYD shows that electric cars are cheaper if designed properly from the ground up. The problem is that the US no longer makes many cars. Mostly giant trucks and SUVs. Hauling all that mass around requires a huge battery, resulting in 3-ton vehicles.

Let’s not forget the Japanese who decided they didn’t want to compete in EVs because they couldn’t use that platform in some of their heavy machinery so decided to get the Japanese government to push hard on hydrogen, at a time Nissan was making a nice push in EVs, which led to Nissan having to back out of EVs as well.

WV seems to do amazingly in Europe so not sure what you are talking about. It is Tesla thaumt seems to be leaving the EV market with no new exciting models and making the European market hate the brand.

https://www.best-selling-cars.com/electric/2025-half-year-eu...

The small part in me understands that, they are banking on three things 1) oil will be cheap because of EV boom and hence EV dominance will be slow and could take couple of decades 2) electric Energy cost will rise significantly because so much charging and energy infrastructure required. 3) Battery will reach at par with gasoline and matured standardised comodity, that will be the perfect time to enter.

I thought Toyota is doing quite well in emerging markets? However they skipped a lot of EV craziness and just do cheap-and-reliable ICE cars.

I also never understood why established brands lobbied for EVs, and not against them. They clearly had no edge over Tesla and Chinese brands, why compete on rival's field?

> 'we were too late, abort'

What do you mean, the ID series for the main VW brand have 7 upcoming models over the next two years (4 for the Chinese market, 3 for everywhere).

> all established brands we know are left behind

I wouldn't go that far. The Renault 5 is one of the best selling EVs in Europe, and all the reviews are extremely positive (it's a fun and good looking car overall, and accessible). They have the 4 rolling out, and the small Twingo coming next year. They've also managed to narrow down the time from concept car to production at scale to less than 2 years (which according to the article on the topic I read is very fast).

>I never understood Volkswagen's pivot from 'wait and See's to 'were inversing billions' to 'we were too late, abort'.

How is VW aborting in any way? They do not have a new ICE Platform, they are totally all in on EVs. Whether that will work out is of course another question, but it is bizarre to bring up EV when there is also Stellantis, who do not even have a dedicated EV Platform for their cars.

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