alt Hacker NewsTesla was dead in the water when it became obvious that they couldn't make a sub-$30K car happen. They will still probably do well as a luxury brand, but China is going to fill in the demand for affordable EVs in the rest of the world outside USA/EU.
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Tesla got far enough for Musk to have the power he wanted and then gave up innovating and expanding. China will win the race, they have a third of global manufacturing capacity and already sell as many NEVs (battery electric and plug in hybrids) domestically as are sold in the US every year, while continuing to scale.
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3334300...
https://insidechinaauto.com/2025/11/01/live-blog-china-octob...
https://www.byd.com/us/news-list/First-BYD-Electric-Vehicle-...
https://rhomotion.com/news/byd-announces-further-global-expa...
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-where-tesla-and-byd-...
Assuming they just manufactured vehicles, then this would be the correct take.
What, has it been a decade of HN’ers calling for imminent demise of Tesla. Meanwhile I’ve been laughing and buying all the way to the bank. Keep on doubting.
I don't think we've seen the end game yet.
I have an electric cargo bike. During a kids party yesterday I ran 5 different errands with it while someone with a car managed to get stuck in traffic, not find a parking spot, and miss the whole thing.
The only reason why cars are the size and shape they are is because ICE engines couldn't be made smaller. Electric engines on the other hand are small enough that I can have the chassis of a fully functioning car be light enough to lift by one man.
I think we will see small, light weight and intrinsically pedestrian safe cars made of tubes and canvas replace the heavy monstrosities we have now.