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hugodanyesterday at 8:48 PM5 repliesview on HN

That’s an aggressive problematic gambler mentality.


Replies

raw_anon_1111yesterday at 11:29 PM

The difference is that if I apply for 10 jobs at once or put a bid in for 10 houses hoping one will succeed, I’ve lost nothing for trying 10 times.

If I gamble and try 10 times and win once - I have probably lost money.

Even if I interview 10 times and fail 9, I’ve learned something from each interview and I’ve gotten better. That’s also not true from rolling dice.

losvediryesterday at 8:55 PM

No it's not. Gambler's fallacy is "I just flipped tails so heads is more likely now". I read this article as "heads has a 50% chance of coming up so I'll get one eventually" (which is true - law of large numbers).

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Animatsyesterday at 8:56 PM

Indeed. "Just one more roll of the dice and I'll be ahead."

Worse, this guy isn't trying to get a job. He's just trying to get into grad school. Which is no longer a guarantee of a good career, but may be a guarantee of a big debt. Remember that "I did everything right" post on HN a few weeks ago? CS degree from a good school, but nobody wants junior CS people any more.

ashu1461yesterday at 8:55 PM

Is it ? In gambling your odds are fixed, but in real life, wouldn't you get better at solving problems with each iteration ?

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xandriusyesterday at 8:49 PM

When the outcome is positive, I see nothing wrong. Especially if you lose basically nothing in trying.

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