logoalt Hacker News

voakbasdatoday at 4:29 PM0 repliesview on HN

I would guess that a single trial of 200 flips can be treated as one event, so getting 100/100 is but one outcome. It may be the most likely individual outcome, but the odds of getting that exact result feel less likely than all of the other possible outcomes. The 100/100 case should be seen the most over repeated trials, but only marginally over other nearby results.

Intuitively, this seems right to me, but sometime statistics do not follow intuition.