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paddleontoday at 5:03 PM0 repliesview on HN

You can tell the difference between

93 heads, 107 tails and

93 tails, 107 heads

but not between

100 heads, 100 tails and

100 tails, 100 heads.

So while those are two results (93/107 and 107/93), they really only count as two separate outcomes if you pre-specify that the first number is heads.

If instead you consider symmetries, where there are 2 ways to get 93/107 and only one wall to get 100/100, then you have more likelihood for the 93/107 outcome because you have two ways to get it.