alt Hacker NewsI think the disagreement is about what that unlikeliness implies. "Aha! You got any result? Clearly you're lying!"... I'm not sure how far that gets you.
There's probably a dorm-quality insight there about the supreme unlikeliness of being, though: out of all the possible universes, this one, etc...
Let's look at the original quote:
> "Remember, if you flip a coin 200 times and it comes heads up exactly 100 times, the chances are the coin is actually unfair. You should expect to see something like 93 or 107 instead".
Inverting the statement makes it read something like this:
You are more likely to not get 100/100 than you are to get exactly 100/100
...which is exactly what I was saying. Nobody is arguing that there is a single value that might be more likely than 100/100. Rather, the argument is that a 100/100 result is suspiciously fair.