> Who would have an incentive to spend resources
That's not how threat analysis works. That's a conspiracy theory. You need to consider the difficulty of achieving it.
Otherwise I could start speculating which large NAS provider is trying to DDoS me, when in fact it's a script kiddie.
As for who would have the most incentives? Unscrupulous AI scrapers. Every unprotected site experiences a flood of AI scrapers/bots.
Actually I think that's roughly how threat analysis works though.
I think the goal is unclear, but the effect will be that Codeberg will be perceived as less of a real, stable alternative. Breaking in was not in my mind, but that will have the same effect, maybe even more damaging. Now, if that has been the intended effect, I hope I won't have to believe that.
Story time:
I remember that back in the day I had a domain name for a pretty hot keyword with a great, organic position in Google rankings. Then someday it got all of a sudden serious boost from black-SEO, with a bazillion links from all kinds of unrelated websites. My domain got penalized and dropped of from the front page.