alt Hacker News> Today, 3 years after launching the first LLM chatbot, OpenAI is nowhere near as dominant as Netscape was in late 1997.
Incorrect. There were about 150 millions Internet users in 1998, or 3.5% of total population. The number grew 10 times by 2008 [0]. Netwcape had about 50% of the browser market at the time [1]. In other words, Netscape dominated a small base and couldn’t keep it up.
ChatGPT has about 800 millions monthly users, or already 10% of total current population. Granted, not exclusively. ChatGPT is already a household name. Outside of early internet adopters, very few people knew who Netscape or what Navigator was.
[0] https://archive.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/1...
[1] https://www.wired.com/1999/06/microsoft-leading-browser-war/...
I was not addressing the size of the market. But the share.
According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_web_browsers, Netscape had 60-70% market share. According to https://firstpagesage.com/reports/top-generative-ai-chatbots..., ChatGPT currently has a 60% market share.
But I consider the enterprise market a better indicator of where things are going. As https://menlovc.com/perspective/2025-mid-year-llm-market-upd... shows, OpenAI is one of a pack of significant competitors - and Anthropic is leading the pack.
Furthermore my point that the early market leaders are seldom the lasting winners is something that you can see across a large number of past financial bubbles through history. You'll find the same thing in, for example, trains, automobiles, planes, and semiconductors. The planes example is particularly interesting. Airline companies not only don't have a good competitive moat, but the mechanics of chapter 11 mean that they keep driving each other bankrupt. It is a successful industry, and yet it has destroyed tons of investment capital!
Despite your quibbles over the early browser market, my broader point stands. It's early days. AI companies do not have a competitive moat. And it is way to premature to reliably pick a winner.