the other side of the AI bubble are a huge amount of 2nd hand parts of all kinds going to come onto the market?
Memory chips are divertied to registered server RAM and those will not fit most workstations
Yeah though expecting that to A) take years still and B) the gear will be old AF
Bit like you could get NVIDIA Server cards before things went crazy but they’re on ancient cuda etc so not exactly as glorious as one would imagine
Unless it drags on for years so that the parts are old by the time everything gets liquidated.
What is the best guess of the mean and variance of the time we need to wait until this happens?
EDIT: Looking into previous cycles, it can take 12-18 months after the peak for prices to go down again.
A lot of the goods won't be essily repurposible for consumer or small business work loads.
Imagine if auto manufacturers all refitted their factories and supply chains to produce military vehicles for a war effort. New family cars would run dry, and when the war ended, some folks would figure out make clever use of some surplus military vehicles for street travel and commerce, but most of the surplus would just be shifted to other military markets and family car production would take some time to resume.
I would snag up every possible H100 and H200 if the AI bubble burst and their prices went into steep decline.
No, they'll be shipped off to developing nations to be dissolved for rare earths for the next boom cycle.
Waiting for all my out of use 4, 8, and 16GB DDR3 DIMMs that I have somewhere in a drawer to become the new gold standard first.