To those who haven't heard how colossal the size of OpenAIs contracts are.
900,000 wafers monthly. Tom's hardware estimates that is equal to 40% of global dram production capacity.
https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/openais-star...
Now thinking of this from the other side, 2 big DRAM producers are taking the risk to dedicate a very big part of their production to AI and if we assume they also have similar deals with other AI companies or big datacenters, what is their risk profile if the AI bubble bursts? Are they viable as companies then ? What is their plan B ?
At that point even if the AI bubble bursts you have a solid business as a RAM scalper
I find it very telling that both Samsung and SK Hynix already stated that they don't plan to expand capacity - officially to prevent overcapacity in the future. It would also be plausable that both doubt OpenAI will follow through with the contract.