logoalt Hacker News

dkdcioyesterday at 3:17 PM1 replyview on HN

if I predict a recession every year I’ll be right eventually


Replies

Gormoyesterday at 3:55 PM

I'm not sure that's directly analogous, though. We're talking about people looking at specific cultural trends and making reasoned arguments about specific causes and effects, not just saying "X will happen". Specific models and assumptions about how human societies work are often validated by historical example, and don't just predict end states, but sequences of events that extend over longer terms.

When people say they see history repeating itself, it's worth hearing them out.

show 1 reply