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hnuser123456yesterday at 7:54 PM3 repliesview on HN

Sure, but if the price is being inflated by inflated demand, then the suppliers will just build more factories until they hit a new, higher optimal production level, and prices will come back down, and eventually process improvements will lead to price-per-GB resuming its overall downtrend.


Replies

malfistyesterday at 7:58 PM

Micron has said they're not scaling up production. Presumably they're afraid of being left holding the bag when the bubble does pop

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nutjob2yesterday at 7:59 PM

Memory fabs take billions of dollars and years to build, also the memory business is a tough one where losses are common, so no such relief in sight.

With a bit of luck OpenAI collapses under its own weight sooner than later, otherwise we're screwed for several years.

mholmyesterday at 7:59 PM

Chip factories need years of lead time, and manufacturers might be hesitant to take on new debt in a massive bubble that might pop before they ever see any returns.