We will start finding out whether people who got the varicella vaccine instead of chicken pox get shingles at a similar rate soon — the older members of this population are approaching shingles age.

Here’s a study that looks good:

https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/226/Supplement_4/S470/6...

The headline conclusion is:

> Latent VZV can be wild-type VZV (wt-VZV) from natural infection, vaccine-strain VZV (vs-VZV) from immunization with live attenuated vaccine, or both. Based on available data in children and adolescents, the risk of HZ from vs-VZV appears to be approximately 80% lower than the risk from wt-VZV, with a lower incidence found in 2-dose as compared to 1-dose vaccine recipients [9, 10].

A major caveat is that the relevant age groups were very much too young for shingles vaccines at the time the study was published.