I always had the impression that the propellant transfer was the harder question than the heat shield. They have done a transfer demo from one internal tank to another, but they still need to test from one ship to another ship.

I only casually follow the news from r/spacex, but prop transfer is what I see generate the most discussion. It’s a hard requirement for all deep space missions. Where the heat shield could be refurbished between launches.

I really want SpaceX to succeed, but the Starship heat shield situation seems quite fucked. I heard they're even reconsidering active cooling now. Maybe they'll figure something out but I don't consider that a foregone conclusion.

New Glenn has an edge over Falcon Heavy and possibly over Starship when it comes to payload volume.

> IMO the only remaining unanswered question for the Starship program is the reusability of the heat shield. There's no reason to believe any other part of it can't work.

Is there a tldr someone put together here ?

Is that different from, say, a year ago? The Starship concept seems technically sound, and the doubt is about whether SpaceX can actually get there, given the rather slow (visible) pace of progress.

China is currently building TWO competing starlink-type systems. Given the trajectory of China in recent years, I no longer say "nobody is anywhere close to competing with..." about pretty much anything.