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modelesstoday at 12:37 AM1 replyview on HN

SpaceX is absolutely capable of building 80 rockets, if they needed to. Don't forget that they built 132 F9 second stages last year, plus thousands of satellites and millions of user terminals. But they don't need to build 80 first stages because their first stages are getting reused 30 times. Why would they waste time building first stages they don't need? China needs to build 80 full rockets because theirs explode after each use.

Meanwhile the Starship factory is looking like it will be quite productive once the design is locked down.


Replies

maxglutetoday at 12:47 AM

Upperstage stage 1/6 weight with simple merlin engine. SpaceX might need to build 80 first stages if PRC reusable ends up building 80 first stages that's also reusable 30 times. Whether SpaceX can actually build and operate 80 first stages (very likely), and their associated second stages (more questionable) or realistically 100, or 200, we don't actually know, but we know basically in any mature industry PRC can outscale US capabilities, sometimes dramatically, i.e. 200-300x in shipbuilding.