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arjietoday at 1:33 AM2 repliesview on HN

I don't think you can have a "free and global market" when countries participate in large-scale state industrial policy. Given those constraints, you have to either enforce a zero-subsidy environment (the US has no power to do this) or you have to accept that trade control is one arm of your foreign policy goals and surrendering it entirely is unlikely to help your aims.

For the most part, free and open trade is beneficial to the Western world order. But I think it's quite straightforward to imagine conditions under which it is not, many of which are currently in effect.

US control of EUV technology is probably the most obvious present one, but limitations on nuclear proliferation are an obvious case where there is no free market. Even selling civilian nuclear technology is controlled.

You may think of it analogously to Free Speech. The dream is complete and total expression. The reality is that if you allow convincing enough liars, your society starts to falter. Consequently, certain kinds of expression are not permitted - notably defamation. Think of it as more a North Star navigation ideal constrained by the trade winds (I suppose the Westerlies would be more relevant, but I couldn't resist the pun).

If you want a couple of reads, I enjoyed A Splendid Exchange about the history of trade, which I followed by the resurgent-though-once-dismissed Zeihan's Disunited Nations (which is more a hypothesis book than a history book).


Replies

hearsathoughttoday at 2:42 AM

> I don't think you can have a "free and global market" when countries participate in large-scale state industrial policy.

All industrialized countries participate in large-scale state industrial policy. It's a pre-condition of industrialization. A nation cannot industrialize without large scale state policy. And once industrialized, all nations maintain large-scale state industrial policy. Are you saying there never has or can be a "free and global" market? Or just when china does it?

> You may think of it analogously to Free Speech.

It's nothing like free speech as free speech is a constitutional right granted within a nation.

> The reality is that if you allow convincing enough liars, your society starts to falter.

That's rich coming from someone peddling zeihan. I've always wondered what kind of morons actually believe his nonsense. Now I know.

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behnamohtoday at 2:57 AM

> Think of it as

did AI write this?

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