alt Hacker NewsA couple of decades back PMs used to look at historical data to guide the estimates for a new project. If a similar coding work took 2 weeks on average in the past, that gives some basis.
So, I think the issue is about whether it is a routine workflow work which has well-tested historical timelines or not.
Nevertheless, estimates are needed at some granularity level. When you order something on Amazon, would like an estimate on when the item would be delivered to you?
Even if coding work can't be estimated, the overall project requires estimation. Someone need to commit to timelines and come under pressure. Distribution of that pressure is only fair.
> A couple of decades back PMs used to look at historical data to guide the estimates for a new project. If a similar coding work took 2 weeks on average in the past, that gives some basis.
Even that doesn’t work because the time taken isn’t just about similarity to other work, it’s about how your new feature interacts with the current state of the codebase which is not the same as when the similar feature was implemented before.
Ultimately, it’s a complexity problem that’s borderline impossible for our feeble human brains to properly understand. And we consistently misunderstand the nature of that complexity