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m4rtinklast Sunday at 8:27 PM2 repliesview on HN

That is a very optimistic scaling assumption - and would almost certainly require substantial in space infrastructure (large scale lunar and asteroid mining and refining, lunar mass drivers, at least solid core nuclear drives) before you can even thin building all the necessary radiators and structural mass.


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LogicFailsMelast Sunday at 10:09 PM

Mid-Century at least optimistically. All of this will play out before then, but broadly, those who can code the machines will survive and thrive as they always do. Except for the older ones, it will be yet another excuse to jettison all that experience and talent because of the gray hair that makes them creatively dead from the neck up according to youthful disruptive beach loving Vinod Khosla.

GMoromisatolast Sunday at 10:58 PM

Starlink (collectively) already has 10 times the solar power of ISS, with present-day launch capabilities. If Starship works out (not guaranteed) launch cost should drop to ~$100/kg, which would enable very large constellations.

Musk is planning for 1 megaton/year of satellites, each with 100kW, yielding about 100GW per year.[1]

He thinks they can do that in 4 years, but adjusting for Elon-time, it's probably no less than 8 years, if ever.

But will the AI money last that long? Maybe not.

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[1] https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1997706687155720229

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