alt Hacker NewsRaymond Chen has a whole "Introduction to IA-64" series of posts on his blog, by the way. It's such an unconventional ISA that I am baffled that Intel seriously thought they would've been able to persuade anyone to switch to it from x86: it's very poorly suited for general-purpose computations. Number crunching, sure, but anything more freeform, and you stare at the specs and wonder how the hell the designers supposed this thing to be programmed and used.
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Some guesses here:
First off, Itanium was definitely meant to be the 64-bit successor to x86 (that's why it's called IA-64 after all), and moving from 32-bit to 64-bit would absolutely have been a killer feature. It's basically only after the underwhelming launch of Itanium that AMD comes out with AMD64, which becomes the actual 64-bit version of x86; once that comes out, the 64-bitness of Itanium is no longer a differentiation.
Second... given that Itanium basically implements every weird architecture feature you've ever heard of, my guess is that they decided they had the resources to make all of this stuff work. And they got into a bubble where they just simply ignored any countervailing viewpoints anytime someone brought up a problem. (This does seem to be a particular specialty of Intel.)
Third, there's definitely a baseline assumption of a sufficiently-smart compiler. And my understanding is that the Intel compiler was actually halfway decent at Itanium, whereas gcc was absolute shit at it. So while some aspects of the design are necessarily inferior (a sufficiently-smart compiler will never be as good at hardware at scavenging ILP, hardware architects, so please stop trying to foist that job on us compiler writers), it actually did do reasonably well on performance in the HPC sector.
They took technical risks that didn't pan out. They thought they'd be able to solve whatever problems they ran into, but they couldn't. They didn't know ahead of time that the result was going to suck. If you try to run an actual tech company, like Intel, without taking any technical risks, competitors who do take technical risks will leave you in the dust.
This doesn't apply to fake tech companies like AirBnB, Dropbox, and Stripe, and if you've spent your career at fake tech companies, your intuition is going to be "off" on this point.
> It's such an unconventional ISA that I am baffled that Intel seriously thought they would've been able to persuade anyone to switch to it from x86 [...]
I don't know, most people don't care about the ISA being weird as long as the compiler produces reasonably fast code?
> baffled that Intel seriously thought they would've been able to persuade anyone to switch to it from x86
They did persuade SGI, DEC and HP to switch from their RISCs to it though. Which turned out to be rather good for business.
Well, they did persuade HP to ditch their own homegrown PA-RISC architecture and jump on board with Itanium, so there's that. I wonder how much that decision contributed to the eventual demise of HP's high performance server division ...
I remember when IA-64 was going to be the next big thing and being utterly baffled when the instruction set was made public. Even if you could somehow ship code that efficiently used the weird instruction bundles, there was no indication that future IA-64 CPUs would have the same limits for instruction grouping.
It did make a tiny bit of sense at the time. Java was ascendant and I think Intel assumed that JIT compiled languages were going to dominate the new century and that a really good compiler could unlock performance. It was not to be.
"We don't care, we don't have to, we're Intel."
Plus, DEC managed to move all of its VAX users to Alpha through the simple expedient of no longer making VAXen, so I wonder if HP (which by that point had swallowed what used to be DEC) thought it could repeat that trick and sunset x86, which Intel has wanted to do for very nearly as long as the x86 has existed. See also: Intel i860
Itanium only failed because AMD for various reasons was able to come up with AMD64 and rug pull Intel's efforts.
In an alternative universe without AMD64, Intel would have kept pushing Itanium while sorting out its issues, HP-UX was on it, and Windows XP as well.