If you want actionable intuition, try "a human with almost zero self-awareness".
"Self-awareness" used in a purely mechanical sense here: having actionable information about itself and its own capabilities.
If you ask an old LLM whether it's able to count the Rs in "strawberry" successfully, it'll say "yes". And then you ask it to do so, and it'll say "2 Rs". It doesn't have the self-awareness to know the practical limits of its knowledge and capabilities. If it did, it would be able to work around the tokenizer and count the Rs successfully.
That's a major pattern in LLM behavior. They have a lot of capabilities and knowledge, but not nearly enough knowledge of how reliable those capabilities are, or meta-knowledge that tells them where the limits of their knowledge lie. So, unreliable reasoning, hallucinations and more.
Agree that's a better intuition, with pretraining pushing the model towards saying "I don't know" in the kinds of situations where people write that as opposed to by introspection of its own confidence.