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beambottoday at 5:01 PM2 repliesview on HN

This is classic Buffett year, being fearful when others are greedy & building a massive war chest for when a correction inevitably occurs.

When it comes to Buffett (and Berkshire), it's really only reasonable to look at 5-year returns. 1-year or YTD are too susceptible to market sentiment rather than true value. Eg the Buffett indicator (stock market value / GDP) is 2x std dev above the norm right now -- way overpriced by historical standards.


Replies

epolanskitoday at 7:28 PM

When it comes to equity investing even 5 years are too little. You want to judge returns in decades, otherwise you're speculating.

Equity markets have been historically negative or flat even for 14 years (most recently 12 between 2000 and 2012).

lotsofpulptoday at 5:33 PM

BRK-B doesn't seem much different than SP500 on 10, 15, and 20 year returns. BRK-B's 5 year return is 2% per year more than SP500.

https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

https://dqydj.com/stock-return-calculator/?ticker=BRK-B

If my goal is to not sell for a decade or more, I'm not sure what BRK offers over SP500, except more risk.

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