alt Hacker NewsGiven that not all information is public in this scenario, there is no choice but to construct theories that are plausible regardless of the gaps in evidence; such is the basic nature of investing and economics both. Is your objection that available evidence was excluded that you consider to be materially relevant, or that theories were constructed when we don’t have the complete story, or..?
The problem isn’t theorising itself, investing is full of it. The issue is when speculation is presented with the tone and certainty of established fact. The article doesn’t merely offer possibilities in light of missing data; it states mechanisms and outcomes as though the evidence for them is already in hand. So the objection isn’t to building a model, but to blurring the line between assumption and demonstration, and to glossing over the range of alternative explanations that the same incomplete information could support.