alt Hacker NewsEngine efficiency, chess rating, AI cap ex. One example is not like the other. Is there steady progress in AI? To me it feels like it’s little progress followed by the occasional breakthrough but I might be totally off here.
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I think you are totally off. Individual benchmarks are not very useful on their own, but as far as I’m aware they all tell the same story of continual progress. I don’t find this surprising since it matches my experience as well.
What example do you need? In every single benchmark AI is getting better and better.
Before someone says "but benchmark doesn't reflect real world..." please name what metric you think is meaningful if not benchmark. Token consumption? OpenAI/Anthropic revenue?
Steady progress in the hardware for AI, lumpy progress in algorithms?
ChatGPT was released 3 years ago and that was complete ass compared to what we have today.
The only 'line go up' graph they have left is money invested. I'm even dubious of the questions answered graph. It looks more like a feature added to internal wiki that went up in usage. Instead it's portrayed as a measure of quality or usefulness.