>The former is the boring, linear prediction.
right, because if there is one thing that history shows us again and again is that things that have a period of huge improvements never plateau but instead continue improving to infinity.
Improvement to infinity, that is the sober and wise bet!
Tiger: humans will never beat tigers because tigers are purpose built killing machines and they are just generalist --40,000BC
The prediction that a new technology that is being heavily researched plateaus after just 5 years of development is certainly a daring one. I can’t think of an example from history where that happened.