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SchwKatzeyesterday at 7:11 PM4 repliesview on HN

My question is, will the ram price go down at some point or is it a point of no return?


Replies

gpmyesterday at 9:31 PM

Yes, we're just hitting the limits of current manufacturing not some fundamental limit like the availability of raw materials. Either demand will wane and the prices will go down, or manufacturing will scale up and prices will go down, eventually. That "eventually" does some work, but it's not remotely a case of "a point of no return".

In fact long term this might well make RAM cheaper than it otherwise would be, because we'll make more of it and get better at producing it than we would have without the demand spike. I.e. Wright's Law in action - which is usually pretty good at producing the long term direction of prices of products like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effect

glaslongyesterday at 9:44 PM

They'll come down some day, but between the massive ai co purchases, and how long Micron says it will take to bring up new production capacity... most estimates I've seen are that it stays high (or grows higher still) until at least 2028.

https://www.tomsguide.com/computing/ram-prices-are-exploding...

wmfyesterday at 7:19 PM

Yes, it will go back down eventually.

cheraderamayesterday at 8:27 PM

The situation is really sticky, since allegedly fabs are anxious to ramp up production, fearing the AI bubble will burst and they will be left with useless stock. So the usual supply chasing demand doesn't apply here and we might wait for a really long time...