It technically resolved according to the rules of the market. A lot of traders on Polymarket seem to place bets on what they think is happening on the ground, when its been clear to me a while, that the key to winning is understanding how and when the sources will report the facts. And now I should add "whether".
I've always wondered how the resolution mechanism can be trusted. Won't someone with enough money rig that? It's not like PoW or PoS where a cheater with huge resources would ruin their own stolen money.