alt Hacker NewsNo, if its randomly distributed then every specific configuration has the same exact chance of happening.
I am laughing at all the people coming out of the woodwork to reply to my original post in this thread misunderstanding randomness and chance.
If you flip a coin a million times and it lands on head every single time, the millionth and 1 time still has a 50/50 chance of landing on heads
Replies
moi2388 • last Wednesday at 7:19 AM
No, because most likely the coin wasn’t a fair coin then, or there was some other bias going on
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> every specific configuration
Who said anything about specific configurations?
We started this talking about whether things "clump" or not. The result depends on your definition of "clump" but let's say it involves a standard deviation. Different standard deviations have wildly different probabilities, even when every specific configuration has the same probability.
Nobody responding to you is calculating things wrong. We're talking about the shape of the data. Categories. And those categories are different sizes, because they have different numbers of specific configurations in them.
> the millionth and 1 time
I don't see any connection between the above discussion and the gambler's fallacy?