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contravariantlast Tuesday at 3:30 PM0 repliesview on HN

Ultimately I think the paradox comes from mixing two paradigms that aren't really designed to be mixed.

That said you can give a Bayesian argument for p-circling provided you have a prior on the power of the test. The details are almost impossible to work out except for a case by case calculation because unless I'm mistake the shape of the p-value distribution when the null-hypothesis does not hold is very ill defined.

However it's quite possible to give some examples where intuitively a p-value of just below 0.05 would be highly suspicious. You just need to mix tests with high power with unclear results. Say for example you're testing the existence of gravity with various objects and you get a probability of <0.04% that objects just stay in the air indefinitely.