alt Hacker NewsAre you seriously saying that, because a point distribution may well make sense if the point in question is zero (or 1) other points are plausible also? Srsly?
The nonsense isn't just that they're assuming a point probability, it's that, conditional on that point probability not being true, there's only a 2% chance that theta is .5 += .01. Whereas the actual a priori probability is more like 99.99%.
Srsly? Srsly.
> The nonsense isn't just that they're assuming a point probability, it's that, conditional on that point probability not being true, there's only a 2% chance that theta is .5 += .01. Whereas the actual a priori probability is more like 99.99%.
The birth sex ratio in humans is about 51.5% male and 48.5% female, well outside of your 99.99% interval. That’s embarrassing.
You are extremely overconfident in the ratio because you have a lot of prior information (but not enough, clearly, to justify your extreme overconfidence). In many problems you don’t have that much prior information. Vague priors are often reasonable.