Archetypes of prompts that I find AI to be quite good at handling:

1. "Write a couple lines or a function that is pretty much what four years ago I would have gone to npm to solve" (e.g. "find the md5 hash of this blob")

2. "Write a function that is highly represented and sampleable in the rest of the project" (e.g. "write a function to query all posts in the database by author_id" (which might include app-specific steps like typing it into a data model)).

3. "Make this isolated needle-in-a-haystack change" (e.g. "change the text of such-and-such tooltip to XYZ") (e.g. "there's a bug with uploading files where we aren't writing the size of the file to the database, fix that")

I've found that it can definitely do wider-ranging tasks than that (e.g. implement all API routes for this new data type per this description of the resource type and desired routes); and it can absolutely work. But, the two problems I run into:

1. Because I don't necessarily have a grokable handle on what it generated, I don't have a sense of what its missing and needed follow-on prompts to create. E.g.: I tell it to write an endpoint that allows users to upload files. A few days later, we realize we aren't MD5-hashing the files that got uploaded; there was a field in the database & resource type to store this value, but it didn't pick up on that, and I didn't prompt it to do this; so its not unreasonable. But oftentimes when I'm writing routes by hand, I'm spending so much time in that function body that follow-on requirements naturally occur to me ("Oh that's right, we talked about needing this route available to both of these two permissions, crap let me implement that"). With AI, it finishes so fast that my brain doesn't have time to remember all the requirements.

2. We've tried to mitigate this by pushing more development into the specs and requirements up-front. This is really hard to get humans to do, first of all. But more critically: None of our data supports the hypothesis that this has shortened cycle times. It mostly just trades writing typescript for reading & writing English (which few engineers I've ever worked with are actually all that good at). The engineers still end up needing long cycle times back-and-forth with the AI to get correct results, and long cycle times in review.

3. The more code you ask it to generate, the more vibeslop you get. Deeply-nested try/catch statements with multiple levels of error handling & throwing. Comments everywhere. Reimplementing the same helper functions five times. These things, we have found, raise the cost and lower the reliability & performance of future prompting, and quickly morph parts of the system into a no-man's-land (literally) where only AIs can really make any change; and every change even by the AIs get harder and harder to ship. Our reported customer issues on these parts of the app are significantly higher than others, and our ability to triage these issues is also impacted because we no longer have SMEs that can just brain-triage issues in our CS channels; everything now requires a full engineering cycle, with AI involvement, to solve.

Our engineers run the spectrum of "never wanted to touch AI, never did" to "earnestly trying to make it work". Ultimately I think the consensus position is: Its a tool that is nice to have in the toolbox, but any assertion that its going to fundamentally change the profile of work our engineers do, or even seriously impact hiring over the long-term, is outside the realm of foreseeable possibility. The models and surrounding tooling are not improving fast enough.