From my vantage I would argue LLMs make good devs around 0.65x more productive

LLMs are great at spewing content and code is a form of "content". I think what we're seeing is software development turning into youtube. Content creators cranking out content, some is great, most is meh, a lot is really bad. I do find it all a bit funny and ironic. My wife was a journalist and bemoaned news blogs and social media for terrible terrible writing claiming it was journalism. She would tell me about how much work quality journalism is and all the mistakes these bloggers and social media make and how detrimental it was to society at large blah blah blah

Now the power to create tons and tons of code (ie content) is in the hands of everyone and here we are complaining about it just like my wife use to complain about journalism. I think the myth of the highly regarded Software Developer perched in front of the warming glow of a screen solving and automating critical problems is coming to an end. Deservedly really, there's nothing more special about typing words into an editor than, say, framing a house. The novelty is over.

[citation needed]. No study I've seen shows an even 50% productivity improvement for programming, let alone a 100% or 9900% improvement.