All that says to me is that basic income support had a beneficial effect on mental health in Germany, Finland, and Malawi. This isn’t like a drug trial, where the underlying system, the human body, is more or less the same. Each country is different enough that the same policies don’t necessarily produce the same outcomes, which is why mental health did not improve in every program which provided basic income support, such as Mincome (Manitoba). As such I am still unconvinced these results mean anything for different places where these programs have not been implemented and tested, where day-to-day life, socioeconomic realities, and government policies are different.

You observe further differences in program outcomes when you notice that providing basic income support in both Finland and Germany did not reduce crime, but there was some evidence of crime reduction in other places under similar programs. So I don’t take the mental health improvement results for granted, especially since, at least in the Finland case, it’s unclear what will happen when you increase the sample of respondents, ie is the effect going to increase, or decrease, or become negligible altogether.

I also think these studies need to report on societal benefits like crime reduction, graduation rates, or gainful employment activity as well. Maybe you cannot ensure that individual effects such as mental health status might improve across countries under such programs. But maybe by pulling enough levers, you can ensure that crime reduction is always a guarantee regardless of type of place.

Consider also that there’s an unnecessary assumption that giving people more money is a meaningful benefit. What if you tested against different options, like creating more community programs, third places, or apprentice programs which guarantee jobs with a certain income. UBI is a useful tool under some circumstances, but assuming that it will improve individual outcomes across the board is unfounded. I still do think that a thoughtful and robust UBI program might ensure more stable local communities and economies, regardless of its benefits or lack thereof for an individual receiving it. In short, these studies are measuring the wrong outcomes to make their case.