While TikTok is clearly still dominant, I don't think it has much of a moat.

If Insta and youtube shorts get enough traction, there's no reason creators won't simply post to each of them to maximize their reach. The legacy platforms are heavily courting/promoting short form video, why leave possible monetization on the table?

Hell, I'm too old for their demo, but I see TikTok videos posted to Reddit and even BlueSky.