Well, yes. They control ISPs and exit nodes, therefore they can correlate entries into and exits out of the Tor network, narrowing down candidate lists until only one user remains. Essentially a nation scale version of the Harvard bomb threat correlation:

https://buttondown.com/grugq/archive/bad-opsec-considered-ha...

As noted in the article, it wasn't the failure of Tor that led to arrest, it was poor OPSEC. Failure to cover, failure to conceal and failure to compartment.