More on whether useful quantum computing is “imminent”

I am confused, since even factoring 21 is apparently so difficult that it "isn’t yet a good benchmark for tracking the progress of quantum computers." [0]

So the "useful quantum computing" that is "imminent" is not the kind of quantum computing that involves the factorization of nearly prime numbers?

[0] https://algassert.com/post/2500

Once quantum computers are possible, is there actually anything else, any other real world applications, besides breaking crypto and number theory problems that they can do, and do much better than regular computers?

I particularly like the end of the post where he compares the history of nuclear fission to the progress on quantum computing. Traditional encryption might already be broken but we have not been told.

I realize this is a minority opinion, and goes against all theories of how quantum computing works, but I just cannot believe that nature will allow us to reliably compute with amplitudes as small as 2^-256. I still suspect something will break down as we approach and move below the planck scale.

Zero money take: quantum computing looks like a bunch of refrigerator companies.

The fact that error correction seems to be struggling implies unaccounted for noise that is not heat. Who knows maybe gravitational waves heck your setup no matter what you do!

As someone that works in quantum computing research both academic and private, no it isn't imminent in my understanding of the word, but it will happen. We are still at that point whereby we are comparable to 60's general computing development. Many different platforms and we have sort of decided on the best next step but we have many issues still to solve. A lot of the key issues have solutions, the problem is more getting everyone to focus in the right direction, which also will mean when funding starts to focus in the right direction. There are snake oil sellers right now and life will be imminently easier when they are removed.

Did anyone else read the last two paragraphs as “I AM NOT ALLOWED TO TELL YOU THINGS YOU SHOULD BE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT” in bright flashing warning lights or is it just me?

another late signal will be a funding spike

once someone makes a widget that extracts an RSA payload, their govt will seize, spend & scale

they will try to keep it quiet but they will start a spending spree that will be visible from space

Cloud providers will love it when we will need to buy more compute and memory for post quantum TSL.

We'll know when all of the old Bitcoin P2PK addresses and transacted from addresses are swept.

I worked in this field for years and helped build one of the recognizable companies. It has been disappointing to see, once again, promising science done in earnest be taken over by grifters. We knew many years ago that it was going to take FAR fewer qubits to crack encryption than pundits (and even experts) believed.