> I feel like we’ve been hearing this for 4 years now.

I feel we were hearing very similar claims 40 years ago, about how the next version of "Fourth Generation Languages" were going to enable business people and managers to write their own software without needing pesky programmers to do it for them. They'll "just" need to learn how to specify the problem sufficiently well.

(Where "just" is used in it's "I don't understand the problem well enough to know how complicated or difficult what I'm about to say next is" sense. "Just stop buying cigarettes, smoker!", "Just eat less and exercise more, fat person!", "Just get a better paying job, poor person!", "Just cheer up, depressed person!")

> The improvements to programming (IME) haven’t come from improved models, they’ve come from agents, tooling, and environment integrations.

I disagree. This almost entirely model capability increases. I've stated this elsewhere: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46362342

Improved tooling/agent scaffolds, whatever, are symptoms of improved model capabilities, not the cause of better capabilities. You put a 2023-era model such as GPT-4 or even e.g. a 2024-era model such as Sonnet 3.5 in today's tooling and they would crash and burn.

The scaffolding and tooling for these models have been tried ever since GPT-3 came out in 2020 in different forms and prototypes. The only reason they're taking off in 2025 is that models are finally capable enough to use them.

Both is true, models have also been significantly improved in the last year alone, let's not even talk about 4 years ago. Agents, tooling and other sugar on top is just that - enabling more efficient and creative usage, but let's not undermine how much better models today are compared to what was available in the past.