Do you think retrospectively your manager may not have been as supportive of you as you had thought?
You missed promo 3 times, and when you left he didn't try to counter you. Is it possible s/he might have been blocking you?
Yeah it honestly feels like the problem here – it's a common pattern where someone tries several times at a promo, then transfers to another team and gets promoted immediately.
I think counter offers in general are pretty rare, especially in a bad job market. Like unicorn rare. In almost 30 years I’ve never left a company where it was even mentioned during the resignation. The company just says “Well, bye.” Like the Tombstone meme.