“Russia has excellent deterrence” is what you’re trying to say sanctions are not working to stop what Russia is doing to Ukraine? That not only demonstrates a bad understanding of geopolitics and how sanctions work, but also distracts from what we are actually talking about.

It’s not really clear to me what you are trying to say. There will be winners and losers and it will be hard to know who they will be. That has nothing to do with Anthropic/OpenAI/etc not being rational in their strategy...