>I don't think this happens most of the time, but it does mean that static typing isn't a strict upgrade in terms of reliability.

It is a strict upgrade in reliability. You're arguing for other benefits here, like readability and simplicity. The metric on topic is reliability and NOT other things like simplicity, expressiveness or readability. Additionally, like you said, it doesn't happen "most" of the time, so even IF we included those metrics in the topic of conversation your argument is not practical.

>You are paying for the extra guarantees on the code you can write by giving up lots of correct programs that you could otherwise have written.

Again the payment is orthogonal to the benefit. The benefit is reliability. The payment is simplicity, flexibility, expressiveness, and readability. For me, personally, (and you as you've seem to indicate) programs actually become more readable and more simple when you add types. Expressiveness and flexibility is actually a foot gun, but that's not an argument I'm making as these are more opinions and therefore unprovable. You're free to feel differently.

My argument is that in the totality of possible errors, statically typed programs have provably LESS errors and thus are definitionally MORE reliable than untyped programs. I am saying that there is ZERO argument here, and that it is mathematical fact. No amount of side stepping out of the bounds of the metric "reliability" will change that.