If performance indeed asymptotes, and if we are not at the end of silicon scaling or decreasing cost of compute, then it will eventually be possible to run the very best models at home on reasonably priced hardware.

Eventually the curves cross. Eventually the computer you can get for, say, $2000, becomes able to run the best models in existence.

The only way this doesn’t happen is if models do not asymptote or if computers stop getting cheaper per unit compute and storage.

This wouldn’t mean everyone would actually do this. Only sophisticated or privacy conscious people would. But what it would mean is that AI is cheap and commodity and there is no moat in just making or running models or in owning the best infrastructure for them.